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President Trump's stamp was all over Tuesday's Texas primary runoff results as his pick for Republican Senate nominee, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, toppled Sen. John Cornyn, and his endorsed candidates proceeded to the general election in other races up and down the ballot.
But Democrats put their mark on this race too, even without a marquee race like the Senate primary, which was decided in March. Ousting longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green was the first sign that voters are ready for something new in Washington — and that Texas Republicans' redistricting hopes might be working out.
Here are four takeaways from Texas' primary runoffs.
Ken Paxton v. James Talarico sets up expensive Senate race
Texas held one of the first Senate primaries on March 3. Now that the general election matchup is set, though, don't expect to stop hearing about it. With Paxton's win on Tuesday night, the Senate seat in Texas became much more competitive than it would have been had Cornyn won. Cook Political Report moved the race from rated as Likely Republican to Lean Republican just moments after the race had been called Tuesday night.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll from mid-April that tested the matchup between each Republican candidate and the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico found that Talarico came out ahead of each Republican by roughly the same amount.
But more importantly, nearly 1 in 5 voters polled had not made their minds up in the race between a Republican and Talarico. While some of that support will likely solidify given Trump's endorsement of Paxton and his win in the primary, that still leaves a lot of voters up for grabs.
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The Texas Senate race is already the second most expensive race in the country this year, after the California governor election. According to NPR's partners at AdImpact, overall, more than $108 million has been spent on that one race this year. Republicans spent almost $75 million of that.
The most recent quarterly campaign finance data shows Talarico has built a significant war chest of his own and he has not had to spend anything as Paxton and Cornyn battled it out. Texas has long been a dream for Democrats, even though one has not won statewide here since 1994 — it's been even longer than that for a Democratic Senate nominee.
The Talarico/Paxton race gives Democrats their best hope in a long time. But the party often gets ahead of itself in Texas, which is still a solidly red state with Republicans controlling pretty much everything in Austin. Remember, those same Republicans drew the map that led to some of the congressional runoffs seen Tuesday night.
Turnout is really going to matter in November
It's a cliche, right? It will all come down to turnout in Texas. In Tuesday's primary, NPR's Senior Political Editor and Correspondent Domenico Montanaro crunched the numbers. Paxton saw a decisive victory — his race call came right as polls closed statewide which is a sign that he was so far ahead there was no mathematical way for Cornyn to catch up.
But the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff had a lot fewer voters to contend with. In 2022, Greg Abbott won the Republican primary for governor outright — no runoff — with a similar margin that Paxton enjoyed over Cornyn. He got 1.2 million votes. Paxton has significantly fewer than a million.
Republicans have seen this kind of lackluster turnout in primaries across the country and despite high profile races. Meanwhile, Democrats have been showing up in 2026 in a big way, starting in Texas. So if Republicans cannot appeal to voters more than the couch and Democrats continue to enjoy this enthusiasm, Texas may see more than a few blue cracks in its red wall.
Democratic voters are asking for new leaders
It is a tough time to be a long-serving Democrat incumbent in Congress. Several of those incumbents will be tested by better-funded challengers in California on June 2 but one, Rep. Al Green, who has represented part of Houston for more than 20 years, lost to fellow incumbent, Rep. Christian Menefee, in the newly redrawn 18th Congressional District.
But Green was also targeted by Texas redistricting which drew part of his original district, including his home, into the 18th. His current district, the 9th, is now a solidly Republican seat in the new map.
Another incumbent, Rep. Julie Johnson, also lost Tuesday to a familiar face. Former Rep. Colin Allred challenged her for the nomination. Johnson replaced Allred in the House when he left to run against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024. Now, he'll likely retake the newly renumbered, safe blue seat in November.
Democrats did manage to avoid nominating a controversial pick in the somewhat competitive 35th Congressional District. Maureen Galindo drew criticism after she made antisemitic comments but ultimately lost Tuesday.
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Still, Democrats may have to pin their hopes on the Senate race. Both of the most competitive House seats in November are already being held by Democrats and pickup opportunities look less and less likely.
Republicans are forecast to win 3-5 seats House seats in Texas alone, and Trump's influence over the Republican Party led to victories for several of his endorsed candidates. In the 9th Congressional District — a prime Republican pickup opportunity — and the aforementioned 35th, the candidates Trump endorsed won. In both cases, they beat Republicans backed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
The YOLO caucus gets its newest member … maybe
When Cornyn delivered his concession speech Tuesday evening, he did not mention Paxton by name, but he said he remained committed to the Republican Party.
"There's a simple rule in elections. You've heard me say it before, and that is the candidate who gets the most votes wins. The party in the majority gets to govern. And my hope is to keep my party in power for generations," Cornyn said.
The generally mild-mannered lawmaker is the newest potential member of what NPR is calling the "YOLO caucus" in Congress. Shorthand for "you only live once," the slang is used to signal things that you might not do in normal circumstances. In this case, Cornyn joins the likes of fellow Republicans defeated by Trump-backed challengers, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a fellow YOLO caucus-er, chose not to run for reelection this year rather than face Trump's wrath.
With narrow margins in both the House and the Senate, just a few lawmakers who want to burn it all to the ground on the way out the door could change things entirely for the president's legislative agenda. Trump may have sacrificed his policy hopes for political wins in party primaries. The candidates he has backed in more competitive general election matchups are not always the most popular to the wider electorate.
But Cornyn hasn't signaled what he'll do with his final seven months in office, keeping it vague in his concession speech.
"I intend to continue my work to help make this nation a better place for all Texans and all Americans."
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