AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The presidents of the world's superpowers - the U.S. and China - are scheduled to meet in Beijing later this week. The stakes are high. Trade is top of mind, but so are tensions since the U.S. is at war with one of China's key energy sources, Iran. Patricia Kim specializes in U.S.-China relations as a fellow at the Brookings Institution, and she joins us now. Welcome to the program.
PATRICIA KIM: Good morning.
RASCOE: So let's start with the basics. What is the stated purpose of this summit, and why are Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping meeting now?
KIM: Well, Ayesha, this is the first time that President Trump and President Xi will be meeting face to face since their brief meeting in South Korea last fall, where they agreed to a one-year trade truce, with both sides essentially agreeing to bring down their sky-high tariffs, Beijing promising to keep its exports of rare earths flowing in exchange for a pause on U.S. tech export controls. Now, the expectation is that at this summit in Beijing next week, the two sides will formally agree to extend the trade trucenand that trade will very much dominate the summit agenda. But in addition to trade, there, of course, will be a lot of things to talk about, and another agenda item will be Taiwan.
RASCOE: Taiwan is finalizing a $25 billion arms deal with the U.S. Do you anticipate that arms deal will be discussed, and what do you think will come from that?
KIM: Well, that arms deal has been something that the Taiwanese side has been working on for a long time. I think the United States has long encouraged Taipei to do more to be able to defend itself, and so that'll be seen as a good thing from the U.S. side. But of course, for the Chinese, that's not necessarily something that they want to see. The Chinese have long been pushing the United States to align U.S. policy closer with China's preferences when it comes to Taiwan. And so it's highly likely that President Xi will use this summit when he meets with President Trump to push on Taiwan. And the key question is, what will he'll ask be? Will he be seeking assurances on limiting U.S. arms sales to Taiwan? Is he going to push President Trump to perhaps privately or publicly make changes to U.S. declaratory policy on Taiwan? These are all areas to be watching closely.
RASCOE: The other issue that seems likely to come up is Iran. Obviously, China is a major buyer of Iranian oil and relies heavily on shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. President Trump had asked China to help reopen it, but China hasn't agreed to that. So could the Iran war trip things up at the summit? Is that another point of contention?
KIM: Yeah. So, I mean, Iran will inevitably feature in the summit discussions, given both sides have significant interests and concerns at stake. As you just outlined, China has great interests in oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. It's not as dependent on Middle Eastern oil as some of its Asian neighbors because it's managed to diversify its energy sources over the years. It has significant oil reserves, but it is still impacted by the broader economic fallout from the war, and Chinese vessels have also been caught up in the crossfire in the Strait of Hormuz.
Of course, on the U.S. side, there are serious concerns as well. Trump administration officials have made clear that they're not pleased with the fact that Chinese companies are still selling Iran dual-use goods. They're buying discounted Iranian oil. There's also been concerns that China may have shipped shoulder-fired missiles to Iran in recent weeks. And so we've seen the Trump administration take the step of sanctioning several Chinese companies, and then Beijing push back by telling companies not to comply with U.S. sanctions. And so there will be plenty of issues that both sides will want to raise.
But having said that, my sense is that neither Washington nor Beijing want their differences on the Iran war to spill over into the broader bilateral relationship. And I think this is because there's a fairly entrenched recognition in both capitals that the U.S. and China are still constrained by deep mutual vulnerabilities. China is still dependent on U.S. chips, advanced tech, while the U.S. needs Chinese rare earth exports. And so until both sides can reduce their strategic dependencies, a trade detente is the least risky path forward.
RASCOE: That's Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution. Thank you so much for joining us.
KIM: Sure thing. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
