A key report on the job market will not be published on Friday, as scheduled, as a result of the government shutdown. That means businesses and policymakers will be left guessing about the strength of the labor market at a time when the U.S. economy appears to be slowing.
If the shutdown drags on for more than a few days, a report on inflation scheduled for mid-October could also be delayed. That report is part of the formula used to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that Social Security recipients receive next year.
The number-crunching bureau at the Labor Department is one of many government agencies idled by the shutdown. A similar work stoppage in 2013 delayed key economic reports for more than two weeks.
The shutdown comes at a sensitive time for the economy. Hiring slowed sharply in recent months, and government tallies showed that employers actually cut jobs in June for the first time since 2020. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.3% in August — its highest reading in almost four years. The September jobs report would ordinarily help shed light on whether those trends continued into early fall.
Concerns about weakness in the job market prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September for the first time all year. The Fed faces another rate-setting decision in four weeks, and policymakers would like to have up-to-date information on hiring and unemployment.
Consumer prices data could also be delayed
Inflation has also heated up slightly in recent months, partly as a result of President Trump's tariffs. Consumer prices in August were up 2.9% from a year ago, compared with a 2.7% annual increase the previous month. Inflation figures for September are supposed to be released on Oct. 15. The cost-of-living readings for July, August and September are used to calculate the annual Social Security COLA.
While there are alternative measures of economic activity, none can match the reach of the federal government, which surveys tens of thousands of households and businesses every month.
Even before the shutdown, staffing cuts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics had forced the government to scale back its monthly price checks. The agency says that during the shutdown, it will not collect, process or share economic data. Once funding is restored, the BLS says, it will resume normal operations and publish an updated schedule of when data will be released.
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